History Doesn’t Necessarily Repeat, But It Rhymes

Our current national conversation pits suburbia against the urban core. Big box stores against Main Street. Cars against transit. Single family homes against apartments. This is a false choice. The way things play out over time might surprise everyone – including me. So I want to look to the past to get a vague outline of what the future might hold. History, as they say, doesn’t necessarily repeat. But it rhymes.

James Heig

James Heig

James Heig

This San Francisco neighborhood is halfway between Haight Ashbury to the north and the Castro to the south. The above photos are from the 1890’s when it was still a new and growing area not yet fully fleshed out. Developers bought inaccessible land in what was then the far fringe of the city, platted lots, and then extended a rail line up the hill. The existence of the streetcar added value to the land and attracted prosperous buyers who built large comfortable homes. Wealthy families typically paid cash.

James Heig

By the 1930’s the Great Depression had chipped away at the neighborhood. The stock market crashed. Unemployment was rampant. People struggled to pay their bills. Property values dropped. It was difficult to sell anything at a respectable price. Solvent renters were hard to come by. And there was a general lack of maintenance as people made do with things as they were.

James Heig

James Heig

Then came World War II. People from the heartland poured in to San Francisco to work in wartime factories. Soldiers gathered and mobilized for the push toward Japan. Suddenly there was work and money, but a critical housing shortage. These once grand homes were each carved up into a dozen little studio apartments, often with shared bathrooms and improvised kitchens. Rationing meant heating fuel was scarce and expensive. Hastily built false ceilings were installed to keep heat closer to the floor where people needed it. Paint, lumber, glass, and metal were all hard to come by. Things weren’t always built to the highest standard.

James Heig

By the end of World War II America’s building stock had been subject to disinvestment and decline for an entire generation. Everything in the old neighborhoods was shoddy and unappealing. Returning soldiers and their wives were eager for a fresh start in much better surroundings. And a grateful nation rewarded them with heavily subsidized brand new homes with green grass and back gardens out in the suburbs. They left the city and never looked back.

James Heig

By the 1960’s the neighborhood had hit bottom. Slumlords had continued the practice of deferred maintenance. The population was composed of people who had intentionally been excluded from the post war suburban boom. As one elderly resident once told me, “It was all Negros and Orientals.” The counter culture and youth rebellions of the era had brought heroin and crime. The Summer of Love soured and got ugly.

James Heig

James Heig

Then, starting in the 1970’s the neighborhood was discovered by new groups of people: industrious immigrants, artists, and gays began buying up cheap properties and breathing new life into them. The local economy picked up. Each new resident and modest renovation emboldened the next round of improvements. A virtuous cycle had taken hold.

James Heig

James Heig

James Heig

James Heig

Today, thanks largely to the tech economy and a massive run up in the stock market wealthy families are once again paying cash for these grand fully renovated homes. Many of the buyers were born and raised in post-war suburbs, but find city life refreshing – particularly when it can be enjoyed in this kind of comfort.

My point here is simple. No one in 1891 could have imagined Pearl Harbor. No one in 1941 could have imagined the Summer of Love. And no one in 1967 could have imagined Google. But all those things happened. Looking out to the future I see another fall in store for this neighborhood. Perhaps an especially bad earthquake. Maybe a shift in the economy. Or just a gradual slow fizzling out over time. And then another rebirth long after we’re all gone…

I see no reason why today’s gated McMansion subdivisions and retail power centers won’t experience similar ups and downs over the next century. For better. And worse. It’s the nature of all things to change.