10 thoughts on “Boom”

  1. All those “prevailing wage” jobs will dry up and only service jobs will remain. That the boom bust cycle of today.

  2. Job growth in the Bay Area has stagnated, though. Rents are now falling or at best (or worst) stabilizing.

    Maybe not a bust….but the boom has moved to Seattle and Austin and other , cheaper, more permissive places.

  3. The interesting thing is SF is a constrained boom, compared to the truly hot cities in the US. In 2014, when Salesforce was just starting to be built, SF was #6 in the US with 4.9million sq feet under construction. It’s sister city San Jose was ahead at #3 with 7.3 million sq feet. #2 NYC nearly doubled up SF with 8million under construction. But the big winner Houston combined SF, San Jose, and New York with 19 million sq feet of office space (not counting residential or dedicated retail) under construction.

    Of course Houston ‘busted’ with oil price crashes, and now it’s back with SF again, with only 3 million sq feet of office towers under construction in 2017. The future is going to be shiny and tall. Maybe wealthy people will turn office towers into single family homes in the future.

    1. The thing about office construction as a barometer is that 9 years after the crash office vacancies are *still* at deep depression levels. There’s a secular shift going on in the economy and we just don’t need as much office space as we used to. I guess it’s a good thing the construction industry has caught on.

      Office towers can be converted to residential space, and are. Conversion of excess office and residential space could fill requirements for new housing in the US for many years although not necessarily in the right places. It does help reduce the separation of residential space from where people want to go, since conversions are obviously in places that allow commercial space.

  4. It makes sense – the boom/bust cycle coupled with the time taken to get a huge project built means it will likely be reaching the market right around the end of the boom.

  5. My Buddy just moved to Houston and got a great deal on a sweet apartment downtown. His first months rent was only $100 bucks, probably likely due to some rule in the financing somewhere that says you can’t charge less than a certain amount per month to keep out the “Undesirables”

    While Houston continues to grow, it is obvious to me that the oil bust might hurting the energy city more than some people think.

      1. I grew up in Indiana. I just could not bear moving back to a high summer humidity climate 🙂

        Even though the golden age (1920s) housing in my hometown is achingly cheap!

  6. I’m a big fan of all the new stuff. Not the skyscrapers per se (although its nice to catch up with 80s Hong Kong) but the mundane & large residential developments – Mission Bay, Hunter’s Point, Candlestick, Park Merced, etc. Demand, meet supply. Well, maybe by the time my kids are grown. Or 2018. Who knows. Anyways, anytime a parking lot becomes a walkable 2-5 story neighborhood (my Goldilocks density standard) I’m in.

  7. When the Transamerica Building, the previous tallest in SF, was built, it was the 8th tallest in the entire world. Now it would be the 17th tallest just in New York City, and probably not even in the top 200 worldwide. How fast things change.

    It’s certainly interesting how building booms often precede economic busts, although not always. SF has had relatively low construction for a while, though, so I doubt a bust is imminent. Like you say, at least the leftovers will be good to look at, whatever happens.

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